Partiers framgång och opinionsmätningar

Opinionsmätningar är hett i veckan: imorse var kommunikationsvetaren Jesper Strömbäck inbjuden till P1 Morgon för att svara på frågan om de är bra. Strömbäck menade att det finns risker med dem - inte minst för att de feltolkas. Han pekade också på att de kan ge direkta effekter på väljare, som att fler väljer det parti som det går bra för (sk bandwagon-effekt).

I Sverige finns dock en effekt som är än mer påtaglig: småpartiers spurt. I Sverige tenderar S och M att tappa, och småpartier, framförallt KD och V, att vinna i valrörelsens slutskede. Därtill visar ny forskning med experimentell data, som jag genomförde vid Medborgarpanelen, Göteborgs universitet, våren 2013 att inte ens vid så låga nivåer som ett stöd på 1.8 procent förlorar ett litet parti väljare. I detta fall, där det var KD.s nivåer som manipulerades, vann partiet till och med extra röster. Ett alldeles färskt labexperiment som jag just genomfört i Sverige och Kanada pekar på liknande tendenser: det finns taktiska röster så att det räcker till flera partier.

Så - vid sidan om bandwagon, glöm inte att småpartierna faktiskt kan tjäna på att ligga illa till.

Läs mer om småpartiernas spurt i Oscarsson/Holmbergs genomgång av valet 2010, sidorna 45-49 http://www.scb.se/statistik/_publikationer/ME0106_2010A01_BR_ME05BR1101.pdf

Evidence from 2010

Looking back is sometimes helpful, not least when talking about elections. Calling up Sweden 2010, there were two outspoken pre-electoral coalitions: the incumbent Centre-Right and a Socialist-Green alternative. There were a couple of parties somewhat at risk of falling below the threshold. Before the election, Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt outspokenly encouraged voters to cast a strategic vote for the Centre-Right  to keep the upcoming xenophobic Sweden Democrats out of power. 

In the end, all seven parliamentary parties, and the Sweden Democrats, made it to the parliament and the Centre-Right government was elected to stay in office. Looking more closely at what happened, data from the 2010 Swedish National Election study shows that it would have been difficult for the Christian Democrats, included in the incumbent coalition, to make it if it weren't for strategic votes. When comparing voters’ first preferences in the pre-election study with their final vote choice, it appears that among those who voted for the Christian Democrats, a majority actually had the largest party in the coalition – the Moderate Party – as their most preferred party:

 First party preference and vote for Christian Democrats (KD)

Preference (%)
Left Party (V)	1,9
Social Democrats (S)	3,8
Centre Party (C)	18,9
People’s Party Liberals (FP)	13,2
Moderate Party (M)	50,9
Christian Democrats (KD)	49,1
Green Party (MP)	9,4
Sweden Democrats (SD)	0,0
n	53
percent KD votes	6,1
NOTE: Pre-election sample, voters who voted for other parties excluded. Preference(s) based on voters’ highest score on 11-point sympathy scale, including ties, (= possible to have two or more parties highest scored).

This indicates that voters had other reasons than sincere party preference to choose the Christian Democrats. Furthermore, when using a more specific measurement of "threshold incentives" (motives to vote for a party because it is in danger of not reaching the threshold to the parliament) and controlling for other factors important for vote choice, such as party identification and number of socio-economic variables, the chances to vote for the Christian Democrats increases by a quarter. These analyses also show that in this election it was the Christian Democrats and not so much the other small parties that benefited from strategic votes.

In the 2010 Swedish national election, motives related to the electoral threshold and considerations of government outcomes had a substantial impact in voting for the Christian Democrats. There was a movement from the other Centre-Right parties, in particular the Moderate Party, to this party. This year Sweden is approaching a new general election annd the coalition alternatives are not as set as last time.  This analysis of the previous election indicates that the Christian Democrats have a group of potential strategic votes. Still, no strategic votes can be taken for granted. 

For full paper and analysis of the 2010 Swedish General Election, see

http://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/uaZsqXEeRTphADEypayP/full

Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, published online

Election year

This year - 2014 - is Election Year in Sweden. Elections have inspired me for a long time - the first one I remeber is 1988 when seals were threatened and I joined to the local school - or was it a library -  where people cast their votes.

The question today is whether  the Social Democrats, with a little help from the Green party (and the Left party), will keep its lead from the opinion polls and go all way to office. The centre-right has been governing for almost 8 years, and there is a feeling that something else is needed. Furthermore, it is an issue whether the Centre party and the Christian Democrats, today included in the centre-right government "Alliance", will actually reach the electoral threshold. If they would not, the centre-right would be consideraly weakened. How far are Moderate party supporters willing to go to support weaker parts of the "Alliance"? And are supporters of other parties, such as the Green party, willing to vote for the small centre-right parties, just to keep them in parliament?

Research shows that voters identify less with a specific party than before, and as many as 20 percent of the electorate in a regular opinion poll are unable to answer which party they support or would vote for if there were a general election. The electorate is volatile and therefore trends become even more important to follow. That's the purpose of this blog. Be very welcome!

Stortorget, Lund, Winter 2013-2014

Stockholm on the run

This weekend I have been visiting Stockholm, capital of Sweden and probably one of the most modern cities in the world. However, coming out from Central Station this time was not as impressive as it used to be. Sweden in December, without snow, is actually quite ugly (see picture below). Nevertheless, there are beauties. Centralbadet (Central bath) which I visited Saturday evening seems to be up and coming. Raw cacao bar in a light therapy garden, bubbles in a mixed pool and two different types of saunas.

Bus stop at Sankt Eriksplan, Stockholm

Quebec beats Sweden in school performance

Back in Sweden one of the first things to meet me was the local school kids substituting their lunch at the Coop supermarket at Trollebergsvägen in Lund. Some of them even smoked in my yard, unwilling to move. "Endast Sverige svenska tonåringar har" ("Swedish teenagers occur in Sweden only"), I thought and went on. The day after - that is today - it is in the news that according to the new Pisa-ranking, Swedish 15-year-old students' performance in maths, science and reading is declining considerably. We are now below average (we used to be above). Canada, on the other hand, is still above average. And according to the Huffington post, Quebecers perform even better. Swedish students skip questions they don't understand. Canadians, and Quebeers in particular, appear to work harder.

In Canada and Quebec authority is respected. This is not the case in Sweden. Furthermore, the basic stuff att school: "läsa, räkna, skriva" (reading, maths and writing) is no longer attractive. It takes time and patience, at any level.


http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/12/03/pisa-results-canada-student-rankings_n_4376190.html
http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/sverige-samst-i-klassen/

Winter and leaving

This is my last week in Montreal, for this time. Tuesday and Wednesday I ran my experiments. It went well, overall, although today I have the feeling I just started, which is actually true - this was my first lab experiment ever. In March I will return to Montréal to participate in a workshop on voting experiments. By then I will have some material from Sweden too. I am looking forward to merging the two perspectives.

Répétition générale

On Monday 18 November I will conduct a first test of my experiment on voting and coordination at Cirano experimental lab in Montréal. It will be real fun to see how the game works out in practice. At this first event there will be mainly colleagues participating.

Then I have another week to make the final revisions for the actual sessions. There are a great number of details that needs to be fixed in an experiment, for example the number of seconds to show a screen, the font size and whether to shuffle preferences or not. Timing is as important as in radio braodcasting - there has to be a flow, but it should not be stressful.